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	<title>The Geiger Index &#187; Banking</title>
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	<description>The Geiger Index is a &#34;black box&#34; system based on non-linear models. Editor Keith Fitz-Gerald has spent over 10 years refining some very remarkable algorithms… Now he&#039;s put these into a program that monitors the markets. His Geiger Index can predict with a very high degree of accuracy where the market will be trading within the next 30, 60 or even 90 days.</description>
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		<title>The Latest Banking-Sector Credit Crisis Will Lead to That Sector&#8217;s Next Group of Profit Plays</title>
		<link>http://www.geigerindex.com/archives/the-latest-banking-sector-credit-crisis-will-lead-to-that-sectors-next-group-of-profit-plays/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 29 May 2008 11:39:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Keith Fitz-Gerald</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keith Fitz-Gerald]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Main Essay]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/05/29/the-latest-banking-sector-credit-crisis-will-lead-to-that-sectors-next-group-of-profit-plays/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By Keith Fitz-Gerald Investment Director Money Morning/The Money Map Report Three major U.S. banks &#8211; including Fifth Third Bancorp. (FITB) and Wachovia Corp. (WB) &#8211; got clobbered in recent days on the news that they&#8217;ve lost another $1.6 billion by making investments in the Citigroup Inc. (C) Falcon hedge fund that lost 75% of its [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>By Keith  Fitz-Gerald</strong><br />
  <strong>Investment  Director</strong><br />
  <strong>Money  Morning/The Money Map Report</strong> </p>
<p>Three major U.S.  banks &#8211; including Fifth Third Bancorp. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AFITB">FITB</a>) and Wachovia  Corp. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=wb&#038;hl=en">WB</a>) &#8211; got  clobbered in recent days <a href="http://www.thestreet.com/story/10417550/1/citi-funds-woes-hit-wachovia-fifth-third.html?puc=btlhome">on  the news</a> that they&#8217;ve lost another $1.6 billion by making investments in  the Citigroup Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=c&#038;hl=en">C</a>) <a href="http://www.finalternatives.com/node/3647">Falcon hedge fund</a> that  lost 75% of its value earlier this year.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s just the  latest chapter in a continuing credit-crisis saga that&#8217;s gone on for so long  that many investors have become numb to the news: They regard all new  developments with a kind of &quot;so what&quot; attitude, or just ignore the news  completely.</p>
<p>Believe me when  I say that such a response is easy to understand. But hear me out as I  underscore why investors must continue to watch this financial-services-sector  saga closely. It&#8217;ll keep you out of trouble.</p>
<p>Let me explain &#8230;</p>
<p>The banks had invested the premiums from so-called &quot;Bank Owned Life Insurance Vehicles,&quot; or BOLIs, which are designed to pay off when key employees die.</p>
<p>BOLIs, in case  you are not familiar with them, are specialized policies typically purchased as  an employee benefit. Banks use them to fund such expected costs as employee  compensation and the accompanying benefits. Like most life-insurance-type  policies, BOLI policies contain both an investment feature and a death benefit. </p>
<p>And that&#8217;s why banks  like them.</p>
<p>Not only does  the bank accrue investment earnings revenue because they own the policies  (bank-owned is the &quot;BO&quot; component of &quot;BOLI&quot;), the financial institution also  receives the death benefit.</p>
<p>And since  neither the death benefit nor the increase in the value of the investment  vehicle is taxed, BOLIs became the mother of all tax shelters for banks.</p>
<p>And that brings  us to the core problem.</p>
<p>You see, by  taking the investment portion of the life insurance policies and moving them  from traditional portfolio choices into more risky hedge funds, a bank, or in  some cases the insurance company that sold the bank the BOLI policy, could  increase its investment return with an almost-instantaneous,  performance-enhancing boost that looked good to regulators and shareholders  alike.</p>
<p>Of course, if  you&#8217;re a baseball fan &#8211; as well as an investor &#8211; you know very well that <a href="http://thesteroidera.blogspot.com/">there&#8217;s a downside to  &quot;performance-enhancing&quot; boosts</a>, even though <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steroids_in_baseball">the dramatic  performance gains make that dark side very tough to resist</a>.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s clearly  why Fifth Third, Wachovia and a still-unnamed <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?catid=56630876">regional bank</a> risked a reported $1.6 billion of their respective BOLI programs, an anonymous  source close to the matter told <strong><em>MarketWatch.com</em></strong>. Many banks,  presumably including these three, use BOLIs to offset the costs of their  employee benefit programs. </p>
<p>And they&#8217;re not  the only ones&#8230;.</p>
<p>BOLIs have  proven to be <a href="http://library.findlaw.com/2005/Jan/19/133690.html">so  popular</a> that banks &#8211; always looking for additional ways to &quot;<a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23731045-36375,00.html">rev  up returns</a>,&quot; according to one news report &#8211; had more than $120 billion  invested in them as of the end of last year.</p>
<p>But now the <a href="http://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/chickens+come+home+to+roost">chickens  are coming home to roost</a>.</p>
<p>Fifth Third is  suing <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=10129231">Transamerica  Life Insurance Co</a>. &#8211; which sold it the policies &#8211; on the grounds that these  investments in the Falcon fund were much more risky than the bank allegedly  thought. Fifth Third also named Clark Consulting Corp. as a party in the  lawsuit. Both Transamerica and <a href="http://www.insurance-business-review.com/article_news.asp?guid=6A13E025-7535-4908-B5E9-7F469EABB2AA">Clark</a> are subsidiaries of the Netherlands-based Aegon NV (ADR: <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AAEG">AEG</a>).</p>
<p>&quot;As with many other credit-based  investment products, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&#038;sid=aTe_s8sFhLRc">the  Falcon&#8217;s returns have been hurt by one of the most volatile periods for fixed  income in recent memory</a>,&#8221; said Citigroup spokeswoman Danielle  Romero-Apsilos, <strong><em>Bloomberg News</em></strong> reported. </p>
<p>Filing a lawsuit  is the Corporate America&#8217;s version of a high-school kid telling his teacher  &quot;the dog ate my homework.&quot;</p>
<p>It seems to me  that if you weren&#8217;t so greedy in the first place &#8211; and had simply stuck to your  knitting with prudent, risk-averse choices that didn&#8217;t require all this  creative accounting &#8211; you wouldn&#8217;t have had a care in the world when Citi&#8217;s  Falcon Fund lost three-quarters of its value.</p>
<p>The bottom line:  There could be an entirely new wave of write-downs encroaching onto  financial-services firms&#8217; corporate earnings reports in the next few quarters  to come. And, as was the case with the initial part of the subprime-mortgage  debacle, some investors are likely to be very surprised at the identities of  the early casualties.</p>
<p>But other  investors will continue to say &quot;so what?&quot;</p>
<p>Investors who  continue to follow these developments will do so with the understanding that  this, too, shall pass &#8211; and some pretty profit plays will ultimately start to  show themselves.</p>
<p>We&#8217;ll be there  to tell you when that happens.</p>
<p>And it&#8217;s likely  to begin well before you&#8217;d expect it.</p>
<p>After all, as the  old Wall Street adage says: &quot;Buy when there&#8217;s blood in the streets.&quot;</p>
<p>And if you&#8217;ve  been listening to what we say, you&#8217;ll be able to say with confidence that none  of that blood is yours.</p>
<p><strong><u>News and  Related Story Links</u></strong><u>:</u></p>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>TheStreet.com</strong>: <br />
  <a href="http://www.thestreet.com/story/10417550/1/citi-funds-woes-hit-wachovia-fifth-third.html?puc=btlhome">Citi       Fund&#8217;s Woes Hit Wachovia, Fifth Third</a>.</p>
</li>
<li><strong>The Australian [Business News]</strong>: <a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23731045-36375,00.html"><br />
  Plunging       Citi hedge fund hurts three big US banks</a>. </p>
</li>
<li><strong>FINAlternatives:</strong> <a href="http://www.finalternatives.com/node/3647"><br />
  Citigroup Bails Out       Troubled Falcon Hedge Funds</a>. </p>
</li>
<li><strong>FindLaw.com: <br />
  </strong><a href="http://library.findlaw.com/2005/Jan/19/133690.html">Bank-Owned Life       Insurance Presents a Window of Opportunity.</a> </p>
</li>
<li><strong>MassMutual Financial Group</strong>: <br />
  <a href="http://www.massmutual.com/mmfg/business/solutions/lcm/boli/index.html">Business       Solutions; Executive Benefits: BOLI</a>.</p>
</li>
<li><strong>Blog Site</strong>: <br />
  <a href="http://thesteroidera.blogspot.com/">Baseball&#8217;s Steroid Era</a>.</p>
</li>
<li><strong>Wikipedia</strong>: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steroids_in_baseball"><br />
  Banned Substances       in Baseball</a>.</p>
</li>
<li><strong>Insurance Business       Review</strong>: <a href="http://www.insurance-business-review.com/article_news.asp?guid=6A13E025-7535-4908-B5E9-7F469EABB2AA"><br />
  Aegon       agrees to acquire Clark</a>. </p>
</li>
<li><strong>Bloomberg News</strong>: <br />
  Wachovia, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&#038;sid=aTe_s8sFhLRc">Fifth       Third Face Losses Tied to Hedge Funds</a></li>
</ul>
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