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	<title>The Geiger Index &#187; Dividends</title>
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	<description>The Geiger Index is a &#34;black box&#34; system based on non-linear models. Editor Keith Fitz-Gerald has spent over 10 years refining some very remarkable algorithms… Now he&#039;s put these into a program that monitors the markets. His Geiger Index can predict with a very high degree of accuracy where the market will be trading within the next 30, 60 or even 90 days.</description>
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		<title>How Dividend-Paying Stocks Can Help You Tame the Bear</title>
		<link>http://www.geigerindex.com/archives/how-dividend-paying-stocks-can-help-you-tame-the-bear/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 05:47:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Keith Fitz-Gerald</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Dividends]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keith Fitz-Gerald]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Main Essay]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[By Keith Fitz-Gerald Investment Director Money Morning/The Money Map Report Many investors are so scared by the wild gyrations the stock market has seen of late that they&#8217;ve jettisoned everything &#8211; including the kitchen sink &#8211; in their search for safety. Not only is this a massive mistake from a timing standpoint, it&#8217;s also a [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>By Keith  Fitz-Gerald</strong><br />
    <strong>Investment  Director</strong><br />
    <strong>Money Morning/The Money Map Report</strong></p>
<p>Many investors  are so scared by the wild gyrations the stock market has seen of late that  they&#8217;ve jettisoned everything &#8211; including the kitchen sink &#8211; in their search  for safety.</p>
<p>Not only is this  a massive mistake from a timing standpoint, it&#8217;s also a major misstep because  of all the dividend income those folks are going to forego. Taken together,  investors who have embraced this kind of &quot;abandon-ship strategy&quot; will find that  they&#8217;ve dealt themselves a one-two knockout punch that will put their  portfolios down for the count.</p>
<p>Let me explain &#8230;</p>
<h3>Dividends are the Key to Profits</h3>
<p>Giving up  dividend income is never smart, but it&#8217;s an especially egregious error during  messy markets like the one we&#8217;re navigating now. Research shows us why. For  instance, studies show that:</p>
<ul type="disc">
<li>Dividend-paying stocks tend to be       more stable than their non-dividend paying brethren &#8211; particularly during       rocky stock markets. In other words, stocks that have income streams       attached are treated better, especially when the going gets tough.</li>
<li>Dividend-paying stocks outperform       non-dividend paying stocks by even more in down markets than they do in up       markets.</li>
<li>By consistently reinvesting       dividends during down markets, investors can substantially expand their       asset base, which puts them way ahead of the game when markets recover and       stock prices soar &#8211; as they always eventually do.</li>
</ul>
<p>The concern,  however, is that we&#8217;re swirling down into a recession. Maybe we are. Maybe  we&#8217;re not.</p>
<p>Either way,  we&#8217;ve been here before. And this malaise &#8211; no matter how bad it gets &#8211; will  pass. Just think about where we&#8217;ve been: There was the Price/Earnings (P/E)  Ratio peak crash of 1901; the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Crash%2C_1929">Great Crash of 1929</a>,  the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1987_stock_market_crash">&quot;Black  Monday&quot;</a> stock market crash of October 1987, the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Contagion">Asian Contagion of 1997</a>,  loan defaults in South America and Russia, and even then 9/11 terrorist  attacks.</p>
<p>Each of these  ultimately passed.</p>
<p>And each time,  dividend-paying companies led the way higher. And the savvy investors who owned  them watched as their own portfolios easily outperformed the market averages,  and roundly trounced the returns of portfolios that were light on  dividend-paying shares, or that excluded those income-oriented shares  altogether.</p>
<h3>The Numbers Tell the Story</h3>
<p>According to Ned  Davis Research, dividend-paying stocks provided returns of more than 10% a year  from 1972 to 2005 [and keep in mind that this research study started at the  worst possible time in the past 40 years &#8211; just prior to the <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2001/05/17/expert/expert/">&quot;bear market&quot; of  1973-1974</a>, which dragged on for 21 months and caused shares to lose 48.2%  of their value. Non-dividend paying stocks, in contrast, posted gains of just  4.1%.</p>
<p>Think of it  another way: An investment of $1,000 in a portfolio of dividend-paying shares  during the period covered by the study would have turned into $2,629; that same  $1,000 invested in non-dividend-payers would have turned into $1,598. In other  words, the dividend-paying portfolio was 65% larger than the non-dividend  paying portfolio.</p>
<p>When separated  into three groups &#8211; rising-dividend-payers, static-dividend-payers, and  non-dividend-payers &#8211; the difference is even more dramatic over the timeframe  in question.</p>
<p>The returns on  stocks that are boosting their dividends were more than four times the returns  of non-dividend-paying stocks. The rising-payout shares also outperformed the  static-dividend payers by 136%.</p>
<p>According to  Yale University&#8217;s Robert Schiller, Wharton Business School&#8217;s Jeremy Siegel and  other noted researchers, the advantage that dividend-paying stocks can have  over non-dividend payers can be as much as 25:1, depending upon the time frames  studied. Dividends can account for as much as 97% of a stock&#8217;s total return.</p>
<p>To understand  the advantages dividends can provide an investor during a down market, let&#8217;s  take a look at the implosion of the dot-com bubble in 2000.</p>
<p>According to <a href="http://members.morningstar.com/memberstpages/allfeature.html?referid=SP017&#038;ss=ms&#038;kw=morningstar">Morningstar</a> research, the <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=626307">Standard  &amp; Poor&#8217;s 500 Index</a> lost 9%, while dividend-oriented mutual funds &#8211;  including high-yielding stocks in the financial-services, mutual-fund and  real-estate sectors &#8211; gained anywhere from 10% to 30%.</p>
<p>Fast forward  again to include both the dot-com decline and the subsequent recovery through  last summer:&nbsp; Once again, dividend-paying  stocks continued to outperform non-dividend-paying stocks by a wide margin.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s a very  good explanation for this out-performance: Dividend-paying stocks feature a  much lower &quot;beta,&quot; meaning that they are less volatile than the overall stock  market. Granted, the downside to this is that dividend-paying stocks don&#8217;t  accelerate as fast as, say, non-dividend paying growth stocks in a broad-based  bull market. But unless you&#8217;re a hard-core stock trader, that&#8217;s a fact you  really don&#8217;t need to worry about.</p>
<p>During a  35-year-period that included some really big market downdrafts and bear-market  cycles &#8211; as well as some highly bullish stretches &#8211; a $100,000 investment in  static dividend payers in 1972 would today be worth $3.2 million. That same  hundred grand invested in dividend-growers would be worth $4 million.</p>
<p>The same  investment in non-dividend-paying stocks would be worth a paltry $240,000.</p>
<p>Again, the  period in question started at one of the most inopportune times investors have  been forced to face in modern history &#8211; just before the start of the &#8217;73-74  bear market.</p>
<h3>The Moves to Make Now</h3>
<p>Regardless of how appealing this strategy sounds, you don&#8217;t want  to rush into anything -not even dividend-paying stocks.</p>
<p>The key reason: It&#8217;s very possible that the current stock-market  downdraft will continue.</p>
<p>Therefore, it makes sense for you to ease your way a little at a  time into dividend-paying shares &#8211; and any other specialized investment  vehicles that we detail for you in the stories and investment reports we  present here in <strong><em>Money Morning</em></strong>. One of the simplest ways to  accomplish this &quot;steady-as-she-goes&quot; strategy is to simply to allocate your  capital into equal parts and invest it in equal amounts over the next three  months to six months.</p>
<p>And  there are some excellent investment candidates. Two of the best are the PowerShares International  Dividend Achievers Fund (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=pid&#038;hl=en">PID</a>) and the Alpine  Dynamic Dividend Fund (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=advdx&#038;hl=en&#038;meta=hl%3Den">ADVDX</a>),  two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that we like a great deal.</p>
<p>The PowerShares International Dividend, or PID, fund is a  global-income portfolio that can help you spread your risk, while also earning  income. The Alpine fund is a more-specialized fund that uses a  &quot;dividend-harvest strategy&quot; that can boost the fund&#8217;s yield.</p>
<p>Both funds invest in companies that have survived countless  business cycles, and that are likely to survive this downdraft, too.</p>
<p>Because  dividend-paying stocks tend to be downdraft resistant, portfolios with higher  yields tend to last longer and pay stronger. That&#8217;s something that&#8217;s important  to all of us, but especially to investors who are nearing retirement, or who  have already retired.</p>
<p><strong><u>News and  Related Story Links</u></strong>:</p>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Wikipedia</strong>: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Contagion"><br />
  The 1997 Asian       Financial Crisis</a>.</p>
</li>
<li><strong>Wikipedia</strong>: <br />
  <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1987_stock_market_crash">Black Monday       Stock Market Crash of October 1987</a>.</p>
</li>
<li><strong>TaxFreeGold.co.UK</strong>: <br />
  <a href="http://www.taxfreegold.co.uk/whybuygold.html">Why Buy Gold?       Headlines From History</a>.</p>
</li>
<li><strong>Wikipedia</strong>: <br />
  <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Crash%2C_1929">The Great       Crash of 1929</a>.</p>
</li>
<li><strong>CNNMoney.com</strong>: <br />
  <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2001/05/17/expert/expert/">What&#8217;s the       Definition of a Bear Market?</a></p>
</li>
<li><strong>Money Morning</strong>: <br />
  <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/25/a-dozen-ways-to-beat-the-dow-twelve-ways-to-profit-no-matter-which-way-the-market-swings/">A       Dozen Ways to Beat the Dow: Twelve Ways to Profit No Matter Which Way the       Market Swings</a>.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
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