By Keith Fitz-Gerald
Investment Director
Money Morning/The Money Map Report

Since March 17th, when the S&P 500 tested a low of 1256.98, the markets have traded higher.

As a result, we’ve received lots of email from readers concerned about the same thing:

"Have we hit the bottom?"

We don’t know.

But what we do know is that what happened three days later offers a tantalizing look at what could be a very bullish possibility.

Let me explain.

On March 20th, the S&P 500 Index rose 2.30%, while gold futures dropped -2.5%. Such big disparate moves hardly ever happen in isolation, let alone at the same time. When viewed against the annals of market history, the moves are an anomaly.

As such, they’re worth noting – and further study. And that got me wondering.

How often have such moves happened in the past? And, more importantly, are the markets likely to demonstrate a bullish or bearish bias after they happen?

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According to Logical Information Machines (www.lim.com), a company that tallies and analyzes this sort of thing, there have been 23 prior occurrences of the S&P 500 rising more than 1% on the same day gold futures dropped by more than 2.5% (omitting repeat occurrences within 10 days).

One hundred percent of the time – or 23 out of 23 occurrences if you’d prefer to think about it that way – the S&P 500 has shown a distinct bullish bias that peaks 100 trading days after the "event."

How bullish?

LIM data suggests that the index’s average overall return during that timeframe has been 11.6%. Based on the March 20th close of 1329.51, that indicates an S&P 500 price target that could be as high as 1483.73 by August 12, 2008.

We’ll take that with a big grain of salt, as we’re sure you also will. But at the same time, we’ll note that the two most recent occurrences prior to March 20, 2008 for this very bullish set up were 1/17/91 and 3/13/03 – dates which, if you look back through your market history books, preceded two of the strongest bull runs in recent memory.

The bottom line is that while we can make the case that the markets will go either way in the next 100 days based on any number of factors, the data suggests the possibility of a move we don’t want to miss.

After all, as we say so often:

"It’s not the market timing that matters… it’s the time in the markets that’s critical."

Keith Fitz-Gerald
Investment Director
Money Morning/The Money Map Report

Investors who are regular readers of the financial pages are no doubt feeling about as uneasy as can be about the near-term outlook for the U.S. economy and U.S. stock prices.

But if you’re a regular reader of the Money Morning Web site these same headlines are probably a lot more reassuring. The reason: Almost all of them reinforce the messages that we repeat here time and again.

These daily developments reinforce the need for globally focused investments like those we advocate, because such holdings are "decoupled" from the fiscal disaster that continues to build here in the U.S. market.

But even for us, I know the headlines can sometimes be tough to stomach. Just remind yourself that with each development, there are actually profit opportunities for us as investors – even though those same headlines mean we’ll experience pain from a consumer standpoint.

Beginning at the top:

• On Friday, President George W. Bush noted that "it’s clear the economy has slowed." No kidding. Leaders are supposed to lead, so why is it that the Beltway Boys are continually stating the obvious as if it’s some new revelation? Give us some solutions.

• From the Ministry of Whitewash, former CEOs Charles O. "Chuck" Prince III [Citigroup Inc. (C)], E. Stanley "Stan" O’Neal [Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER)] and Angelo Mozilo [Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC)] all defended their multi-million-dollar payouts on Capitol Hill. "In short," Mozilo said, "as our company did well, I did well." Prince stated that his pay tied directly to the performance of the company. And O’Neal argued that his compensation was in line with the broader financial services industry." Well if that’s the case, what I want to know is this: How come these guys aren’t now being penalized for giving investors a billion-dollar haircut?

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• Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve reported that – for the first time on record – homeowners’ unpaid loan balances exceeded their equity. Having personally lived through the Japanese economic nightmare of the early 1990s, I can’t help but feel an uncomfortable sense of déjà vu here – particularly with foreclosures now reaching all time highs. This is a highly negative, "reinforcing downward spiral" Mark Zandi, the chief economist at the Moody’s Corp. (MCO) Economy.com unit, told The Associated Press last week. We couldn’t agree more.

• U.S. employers are operating in a slash-and-burn mode when it comes to jobs. According to federal statistics released Friday, the 63,000 job cuts that were just reported were the biggest total in five years. If U.S. companies and their government labor-market protectors aren’t careful, this slash-and-burn mode will turn into a permanent "scorched-earth" policy – meaning the jobs will never come back.

• Durable-goods orders were down 5.3%, while revised fourth-quarter gross-domestic-product (GDP) growth was a measly 0.6% – the slowest result in five years.

• And the previously sinking U.S. dollar is in a full-fledged freefall. No wonder Europeans are upset: Our exporters are stealing their market share faster than hooligans looted storefronts after the 1960s East Coast blackout.

When these facts are taken together, two things are clear:

• First, the U.S. economy isn’t just slowing – it’s in a full-fledged retreat, something we predicted months ago.

• GDP may actually contract, positioning us for an "official recession."

Before you start to believe everything is bleak and that we’re headed for a Great Crash-style downturn, let’s take a look at the good news.

And believe it or not, there still is good news for investors. There are plenty of ways that investors can position their assets for growth, even as they more closely control downside risk – even the face of such horrific market conditions.

Some of these investments – such as balanced funds – provide stability, which is crucial in a market like this one, and which is why we’ve been recommending them for a while. Other types of investments, such as bond funds, provide additional stability and generate a stream of income, to boot.

As for specific companies, it should be no surprise that we continue to favor the so-called "Global Titans" that we’ve referred to so often in recent months. Not only are these stocks holding their own, but many actually are expanding their market share and profits.

Of course, the inverse funds that we’ve been recommending are up by double-digit amounts, too. Compare that with the broader markets, which have plunged to hair-raising levels in only a matter of weeks.

When I look into my crystal ball – in my case, a very powerful PC supercharged with some highly customized and highly proprietary analytics – I see some very bright times ahead. But that’s only for investors who are shrewd enough to play the hand they’re dealt – and not the investors who sit around waiting for the so-called "perfect" hand.

We are not facing anything close to the death of the equities markets. In fact, when we see a cover story in Time, BusinessWeek, Forbes or Fortune that’s eulogizing the U.S. capital markets, I’ll be backing up a truck to buy.

Studies show that investors have a great history of doing exactly the wrong thing at the wrong time so that kind of media coverage is one of the best Contrarian indicators in the technical playbook.

Keep an eye out.

You can bet that we’ll be doing just that.

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By Keith Fitz-Gerald
Investment Director
Money Morning/The Money Map Report

During an appearance at a recent investor event, I was asked if I could make a bullish argument for U.S. stocks in 2008, given the expected continued flow of negative news.

My answer: Making that case for U.S. stocks will be a lot tougher than making a case for international stocks. But the bottom line is that there is a case to be made.

The trouble is, I’m not sure that I fully believe it.

The Case for U.S. Stocks

I can give you four reasons why U.S. stocks hold some promise this year.

First, even though we don’t agree with how "Team Bernanke" is handling U.S. monetary policy right now, at least U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is reacting a whole lot faster to market stresses than his predecessor, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan "Irrational Exuberance" Greenspan, ever did.

On average, Bernanke is waiting mere weeks to respond and launch a monetary counterstrike, while his predecessor took months and months – and sometimes more than a year – to make badly needed moves. And believe me when I tell you that we’re right now paying the price for those delays.

Furthermore, by working closely with the players involved, Bernanke is showing a lot more creativity and a willingness to do whatever it takes to keep the U.S. economy from going under. Granted, not everyone likes that stance, and some feel that Bernanke is playing to the markets, instead of managing the economy, which is his real mandate. Even so, investors who feel reassured by the Fed chief’s actions will keep their money in the markets, which will keep losses from getting even deeper than they already are.

That’s not such a bad thing.

Second, the weakened U.S. dollar has created a sort of export "incentive," for lack of a better term. This is allowing U.S. multinationals, particularly those that are large exporters, to gain ground on their overseas counterparts while at the same time providing a reason for the foreign investment money flowing into the U.S. market.

This, too, is highly bullish. In the past, it’s helped propel earnings even when the local economy is weakened for whatever reason. And because stronger foreign currency can buy primo U.S. assets on the cheap, merger activity escalates, which also helps keep U.S. share prices chugging for higher ground.

Third, American corporations are sitting on nearly $3 trillion in cash according to Standard and Poor’s. This is three times the level of cash these firms held 10 years ago, which probably ties in some way to the fact that U.S. firms have been buying back their own stock at one of the fastest paces on record.

Like the merger markets supercharged by foreign capital, a brisk buyback market can help keep stock prices high, too. When companies spend gobs of cash on share buybacks, it tends to have a calming and stabilizing impact on investors, and on the markets, in general. Indeed, without the buybacks, investors might stay out of the markets altogether.

And, fourth, American consumers have generally remained in a spending mood, although the lackluster holidays and some recent disappointments in the retail-sector earnings department are more than a little bit troubling. However, the U.S. Commerce Department yesterday surprised investors with a report that U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose in January.

As you can see, I’ve made a fairly bullish case for U.S. stocks for this year.

Now, as for whether I believe the case that I just made … well, that’s a different story.

2008: The Year of Uncertainty

I can’t ever recall entering a trading year with such conflicting signals. This suggests to me that before the markets get better, they’re likely to get rougher. And, if Fed Chair Bernanke elects to cut rates further – as most of us expect that he will – the U.S. greenback is going to get even weaker, which makes most of the bullish indicators I’ve just mentioned susceptible to being swamped by other global forces. Some of the most worrisome include:

• A deteriorating credit situation.
• Energy prices that are certain to spike.
• An unsettled Middle East – and by that I’m not just focusing on the U.S. war in Iraq.
• The spectacular growth in China, and all of the fallout that creates.

So how do we balance this somewhat bullish outlook with this long list of caveats – and still manage to profit?

We’re advocating several strategies.

First, go with the "Global Titans."  These are the large multinational firms – many of them based in the United States – that harvest a hefty percentage of their sales and profits from the foreign markets that are growing at several times the tepid pace that’s being predicted for the U.S. economy this year. They offer diversification, should the U.S. market falter completely and stumble into a recessionary pothole. At the same time, the U.S.-based firms offer the safety of the much-more-stringent U.S. regulatory oversight. So you get the great growth of the foreign markets, and the protection of U.S. oversight.

Not a bad deal.

Second, when it comes to bonds, go international. Because these are tied to economic conditions outside the U.S. market, foreign bonds are really plays on national economies rather than individual companies. And, to make the point again, many of these markets abroad are growing much faster than their U.S. counterpart.

Third, and last, get " inverted." At a time like this, as both a hedge and as a profit-generator, we advocate the use of inverse funds – particularly those tied to the U.S. markets. We believe that each investor should hold at least a small portion of these in their portfolio. Not only can these take the sting out of further declines, they also can dramatically stabilize a portfolio because they are so-called "non-correlated assets," which means the funds zig when the markets zag.

In my opinion, the U.S. economy is still highly prone to a "zag" – otherwise known as a "downturn" or "recession." The retail sales report released yesterday may well end up being a case in point; although the report said sales rose unexpectedly in January, I’m not sure those numbers are all that bullish. We’ll see for sure when next month’s retail report comes out.

To profit if the market drops, or to hedge your other holdings, take advantage of a specialized exchange-traded fund (ETF) such as the Rydex Inverse S&P 500 Strategy Inverse Fund (RYURX), which is designed to rise in value by 1% for every 1% the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index falls.

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By Keith Fitz-Gerald
Investment Director
Money Morning/The Money Map Report

Many investors are wondering what to do with their cash now – particularly if they’re income oriented and bonds are a big part of their investment portfolio.

This is really a two-part question. You want your investments to earn a decent return, but at the same time, set you up for the next interest rate cycle and future profits.

Here’s how.

First, get ready to sell your longer-term bonds. Odds are that the bond markets are headed for one final blow-off rally, due to the slowing U.S. economy and the subsequent rate cuts as "Team Bernanke" tries to deal with it. We don’t think the U.S. Federal Reserve will do much, nor do we think any action it takes will be enough for much more than a temporary "relief" rally.

In fact, we are so skeptical of Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s "Attention to Deficits Disorder" that we would actually prefer to see a Paul Volcker-style torpedo that cleans the pipes thoroughly – but that’s a story for another time.

Second, buy T-bills. Finance this move with any new cash that you had been planning to use for conventional bonds. Central banks around the world are being forced to deal with Bernanke’s benign neglect. They’re also ditching the dollar, leaving it out on the curb like the trash that it is.

That’s a big problem for Washington, which is going to be left holding the bag if it can’t sell dollars to such countries as China, Japan and Korea that have traditionally bailed us out by supporting our deficits and our greenback. We think this is going to ultimately force the Fed to reverse course and raise interest rates in an effort to make the dollar attractive enough to bring those countries back to the table and keep ‘em buying.

But that’s not going to happen, yet. Look for this to happen on the heels of the rate decrease I just told you about, which puts any future rate hikes in mid-2008 at the earliest.

If you’re a little more aggressive, and longer-term in orientation, and do want to buy the bonds anyway, one of our favorite choices is the PIMCO Strategic Global Government Bond Fund (RCS). It’s presently got an impressive yield of 7.70% and pays monthly. The trick is that if the dollar gains some footing, it may drag on performance, but with a solid income, we’re less concerned about that if the markets drop farther.

Third, work the ladder. When rate increases begin in earnest, begin buying a good old fashioned interest rate ladder, and split your bond investments amongst instruments with two, three, five and 10-year maturities. Research shows that you can capture 80% or more of bond-market returns, using maturities that are 10 years or less without the volatility that plagues longer-term bonds – such as those with 20- and 30-year maturities.

And, fourth, consider currencies. Currencies can be viewed as an investment-allocation just like any other investment class in your portfolio. We don’t advocate trading spot-FX though. In contrast to all those slick mailers and infomercials say about how simple these profits are to grab, currency trading is really not easy to do.

Instead, we prefer a specialized choice like the Powershares DB G10 Currency Harvest Fund (DBV). This ETF simultaneously takes long positions in the world’s three-strongest currencies and short positions in the world’s three-weakest currencies, as measured by interest rates. It’s a bit like hitting a tomato with a sledgehammer in that it’s a very effective strategy that can be used on something that normally requires a much finer touch.

But when the going gets rough like it has been recently, it’s sometimes the simplest things that matter.

By Keith Fitz-Gerald
Investment Director
Money Morning/The Money Map Report

Show me an effective Bush Administration economic stimulus package and I’ll show you a finger-friendly Cuisinart.

Who does President George W. Bush think he’s kidding?

The $600 bucks he wants to hand out isn’t going to do squat – and the securities markets know it, which is why they’re selling off so steeply as of late.

As much as I’d like to put the blame on Bush for the financial-markets mess we’re dealing with now, it really wouldn’t be fair. Instead, everything points to former Federal Reserve Chairman Al "Irrational Exuberance" Greenspan as being the key cause of this toxic financial soup. This puts his former sidekick and eventual successor – Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke – in the unenviable position of having to bring the country in from the rain.

Unfortunately, he can’t do it.

Government Inflation Stats Need Inflating

Despite the party line about so-called "core inflation" holding the line, Washington is badly out of touch with reality, and has been for a long time now. It’s bad enough that the core inflation figures factor out "volatile food and energy prices," as the reports always state. That’s almost a ludicrous thought: After all, the higher costs of food, gasoline, heating oil, air conditioning and electricity hit us squarely in the wallet, too. But, as we’ve been saying for years, even the core inflation numbers the government has been relying upon have understated the true effects of inflation.

Thanks to Greenspan – and years of cheap capital – the home equity market has been pillaged like a band of Vikings ran though it. The average family carries $8,500 to $12,000 in consumer debt, scattered across six to eight credit cards. Breakfast costs 60% more now than it did at this same time a year ago. Oil has nearly doubled, and medical costs are skyrocketing.

Then there are the soaring default rates and bankruptcies, which are escalating at rates we haven’t seen in years.

Unfortunately, Team Bernanke may be out of aces, which is why investors must take matters into their own hands.

Without subjecting you to a lecture on the finer points of economic theory, let me just say that taking the stimulus package the Bush Administration is currently contemplating and bringing it to bear on the current economic conditions is tantamount to bringing a knife to a gunfight. It’s outdated and is the wrong tool for the battle at hand.

Here’s why: The Fed’s current tactics presume that healthy financial institutions will be able to counter inadequate consumer demand. This is why the central bank has been working so hard to keep such "big boys" as Citigroup Inc. (C) and Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER) afloat.

However, using the words "healthy" and "financial institutions" in the same sentence is perhaps the ultimate oxymoron, because it was the financial institutions that got us into this mess, and they’re anything but healthy right now.

At best, some of these players are turnaround candidates.

But, healthy? No way…

Personally, I’m livid that my tax dollars are being deployed to bail out some of these financial institutions, when the markets clearly want to let them die a painful death. Nor am I happy that big companies are using tax loopholes and other financial maneuvers to dodge hundreds of millions of dollars in state and federal income taxes. That’s money that you and I will have to make up.

But what really burns my jets is that Wall Street paid out some of its biggest-ever bonuses for last year. Now the newly flush members of the Armani Army are shopping for homes in Aspen and the Hamptons, while many working- and middle-class homeowners are struggling to avoid defaulting on their subprime mortgages. The rest of us are trying to figure out what we’re going to do with the $600 we’re each going to get from the Bush anti-recession stimulus plan.

Don’t get me wrong: The money’s nice; but it won’t help much.

Clearly, the money rules have changed. And getting rich is the best revenge even as our esteemed leaders muddle around in a politically charged stupor.

Here’s how…

Profit Plays to Make Now

First, build a base. Invest as much as 50% of your assets in a category of investments we refer to as "Base Builders." That’s one of three asset classes – the other two being "Global Growth" and "Rocket Riders" – whose names are self-explanatory. Invest as much as 40% in Global Growth and up to 10% in the more-speculative Rocket Rider investments.

These are holdings that not only provide a significant potential upside, but also have automatic safety brakes built in. The Vanguard Wellington Fund (VWELX) is my favorite example. Since 1929, it’s captured most of the market’s upside, including a fair number of years with returns of 20% or better. But the fund has avoided replicating the worst of the downturns because of its 60-40 split between stocks and bonds.

Second, dial up dividends. Studies show that dividend-paying stocks are less volatile, and the consistent reinvestments along the way can build up a thick layer of financial armor that will actually boost your returns when the markets eventually do recover – as they will.

Certainly, dividend-paying stocks such as General Electric Co. (GE), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Bristol Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) are great, but a dividend-harvest strategy like that utilized by the Alpine Dynamic Dividend Fund (ADVDX) can dramatically accelerate the process in down markets.

Third, run the reverse. Include at least a small percentage of "inverse" mutual funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in your portfolio mix. In case you’re not familiar with inverse investments, these are funds that appreciate in value as the broader market drops. Not only can they help stabilize your portfolio during the increasingly volatile stretch like the one we’re attempting to navigate now, they can also really put a smile on your face when the going gets rough. One of our favorites is the Rydex Inverse S&P 500 Strategy Investment Fund (RYURX).

And fourth, and last, grab some "Global Titans." Make sure that you are focusing the more-conventional portions of your portfolio on the so-called Global Titan stocks that we’ve discussed with you so many times before. Companies such as Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM), PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) and The Boeing Co. (BA) derive big portions of their revenue from overseas. Not only can these securities overcome the weak U.S. economy, they can capitalize on the faster growth of key overseas markets as China.

It’s a formula for double-barreled profits that will clearly have a bigger benefit than a capital-infusion plan that nets each of us $600.

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By Keith Fitz-Gerald
Contributing Editor

Whenever I’m faced with a market like this one – rocky and volatile, with hidden wildcards just waiting to trip us up – I can’t help but think about my late grandmother, successful amateur investor Virginia Gruner, and the warning she would issue in just these situations: “Hold onto your bippies!”

As I sit here and stare at my trading screens this afternoon (Monday) – watching as central banks around the world inject billions into the global economy in an effort to blunt the effects of the spiraling credit crisis – I can just hear my grandmother issue her ever-so-familiar warning.

The Greatest Investor I’ve Ever Known

You see, my grandmother was a super-successful amateur investor.  She’d spent most of her adult life managing her household, the wife of a highly successful insurance-industry executive (my grandfather). When her husband died, my grandmother found that her family’s own finances were in disarray. So with characteristic commitment, and with a resolve I always admired, she set out to become a successful investor. She became one of the smartest individual investors most of us will ever see – and, actually, one of the best investors of any kind I have ever known.

My grandmother then set out to pass that “gift” along – to me. Starting when I was a teenager, she made sure that I always had the entire Value Line investment research series, and annual subscriptions to such leading publications as Business Week and Forbes. She wasn’t forcing this on me, mind you, but rather was sharing it with me – and in a way that made me want to learn all that I could, and be as successful at this wonderfully engaging pursuit as my grandmother.

Yesterday’s late-afternoon trading patterns suggest that her bit of wisdom may somehow be fitting to keep in mind over the next few days. I’m now hearing from traders based both here in the United States and around Europe that the $275 billion injected into the world economies by the global central banks may not be enough.

And, yet, Asia’s traders seem placated.
 
So, what gives?

I honestly don’t know. But here’s what my experience tells me should be happening – as well as what’s actually happening.

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The Global Realities

Somehow, the Euros and Americans don’t trust the system. They think that Monday’s rally is nothing more than a continuation of the short covering and limited bottom fishing that began Friday on the heels of nearly $275 billion in central bank liquidity injections

They’ve got a bad case of: “I’ll believe it when I see it.” And investors seemingly want the ECB and Fed to drop rates as a sign of good faith that things are truly behind us. Yesterday, in fact, I saw no fewer than 20 different news stories, research reports, and market essays from various people suggesting that a “Fed rate cut is in the bag” – which makes me suspect all the more that it isn’t.

Asian traders, on the other hand, seem to think that the massive amounts of money shot into the system was enough to fix the problem.

It’s the way that the Asian markets are trading that leads me to draw this conclusion – that, of course, plus the 20-plus years I’ve spent in and around the Asian markets.

The Japanese and Chinese in particular have a different cultural framework than we rely on here in the West. As a result, the Japanese have a sort of implicit trust in the government as a benevolent entity while the Chinese view it as a strict leader to be obeyed…maneuvered, but obeyed nonetheless. There are, of course, finer points to each but those are more academic than anything else.

In more practical terms, based on how the two camps (the West vs. Asia) appear to be divided in their trading philosophy right now, what we as individual investors are left with is a dichotomy: Roughly half the world’s financial system wants more “liquidity,” while the other half seems content with what it’s got.

Really Time to Go Global

So, who’s right and what does it mean for us?

That remains to be seen. I’m personally of the opinion that we have a long way to go before the extent of the damage is truly recognized. There will undoubtedly be some big names on the chopping block in the weeks to come as more light is shed on this messy credit situation. Some of these revelations will have been anticipated. But others will be huge surprises, and could well roil the markets.

Either way, this suggests to me that individual investors have yet another reason to focus at least part of their financial strategies on global investing (Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel recently said that an international allotment of under 40% was a “disservice,” as well as a recipe for substantial underperformance).

That said, it’s clearly not enough any more to diversify by country because most of the countries, as so many people found out last week, are inextricably linked at the central banking level.

Therefore, it is vitally important to take a different approach that both lessens your risk and heightens your potential returns. Part of that approach includes lining up your money with the virtually unstoppable trends of our time. The other part suggests “an offensive defense” may be more appropriate now more than ever.

Last week’s financial shenanigans have clearly changed the rules of the game – yet again.

As I reason this all through, I can’t help but consider what my grandmother would say about this situation. The best revenge, of course, is to take advantage of all possible profit opportunities. But we all know that these next few weeks could be highly volatile, which either connotes danger or opportunity – depending upon your viewpoint.

So brace yourself for still more volatility (“hold onto your bippies!”). Then capitalize on whatever opportunities the financial markets throw at you. Look especially closely at global investment opportunities, but don’t be afraid to be opportunistic domestically, either. Be bold, but not reckless.

And have at it!

Good Investing to us all.

 Keith Fitz-Gerald

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